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By The Jazzy One on January 22nd, 2010
The Minnesota Vikings will travel to Louisiana to face the New Orleans Saints for the NFC Championship.
Both teams had a great regular season. Both teams had a first round bye. Both teams beat their Divisional Round opponent by 31 points. Now they’ll clash in the Super Dome with a trip to Superbowl 44 on the line.
Who has the advantage?
Both of these teams are great. Both have powerhouse offenses. The Saints are the best team that the Vikings will have played all year. Last week I pointed out that the stats showed that the Vikings were the better team, and as it turned out… they were.
So what do the stats show this week?
The Offenses are very close to even with a slight advantage to the Saints
I’m not sure that I’ve ever compared two top offenses that were so close before. Check this out…
-New Orleans averaged 403.8 yards per game (#1 in the league)
-The Vikings were only 24.2 yards per game behind them at 379.6 (#5 in the league)
-New Orleans scored 31.9 points per game (#1 in the league)
-Minnesota scored 29.4 points per game (#2 in the league)
-New Orleans converted on 45% of their 3rd down attempts this season. (#6 in the league)
-The Vikings also converted on 45% of their 3rd down attempts (#5 in the league, a few conversions ahead)
-New Orleans averaged 272.2 passing yards per game (#4 in the league)
-Minnesota was only 12.4 yards a game behind them at 259.8 (#8 in the league)
-New Orleans scored 34 passing touchdowns this year (all from Drew Brees) (tied for #1 in the league)
-Minnesota also had 34 passing touchdowns this year (33 from Favre, 1 from Jackson) (tied for #1 in the league)
-New Orleans completed 69.5% of their passes as a team (#1 in the league)
-Minnesota completed 68.3% of their passes as a team (#2 in the league)
-New Orleans had 131.6 rushing yards per game (#6 in the league)
-Minnesota was just 11.7 yards per game behind them with 119.9 (#13 in the league)
-New Orleans had 21 rushing TDs this season (tied for #3 in the leauge)
-Minnesota was only 2 behind with 19 (tied for #6 in the league)
I think it’s hard to argue that New Orleans has a more productive offense than the Vikings, but on the flip side I also think it’s hard to argue that offensively Minnesota can hold their own with the Saints. The Saints were better in most of these categories, but none there wasn’t much separation in any of them. That has to be encouraging to Minnesota fans.
How about Big Play Offense?
New Orleans is kind of known around the league as being a big play offense. How do the Vikings stack up to that?
-New Orleans had 14 running plays of 20 yards or more this season (tied for #8 in the league)
-Minnesota had 15 running plays of 20 or more yards (#7 in the league)
-New Orleans had 2 running plays for 40+ yards this year (tied for #14 in the league)
-Minnesota had 3 running plays of 40+ yards this year (tied for #7 in the league)
-New Orleans had 58 passing plays for 20+ yards this year (tied for #8 in the league)
-Minnesota had 55 passing plays for 20+ yards this year (tied for #10)
-New Orleans had 11 passing plays for 40+ yards this year (#10 in the league)
-Minnesota had 13 passing plays for 40+ yards this year (tied for #6 in the league)
-New Orleans had 5 kicks returned for 40+ yards this year (tied for #4 in the league)
-Minnesota also had 5 kicks returned for 40+ yards this year (tied for #4 in the league)
Believe it or not, I’d say that Minnesota holds a slight advantage when it comes to being the “big play offense”. Again, though, it’s a very close race, with Minnesota barely ahead in 3 of the categories, and New Orleans barely ahead in 1 category.
How about the Defense?
If the offenses are pretty equal, and the big play capability of each team is pretty close, it’s very possible that which ever team plays better defense will win the game. Let’s take a look at some of those stats.
-New Orleans ranked #24 in the league with 357.8 yards per game allowed.
-Minnesota ranked #6 in the league with 305.5 yards allowed per game.
-New Orleans ranked #20 in the league giving up 21.3 points per game
-Minnesota ranked #10 in the league giving up 19.5 points per game
-New Orleans’ defense was #14 in the league at stopping third downs, giving up only 38%
-Minnesota was #3 in the league, giving up only 34%
-New Orleans was #26 in the league, giving up 235.6 passing yards per game
-Minnesota was #19 in the league, giving up 218.4 passing yards per game
-New Orleans was #13 in the league with 35 sacks
-Minnesota was #1 in the league with 48 sacks
-New Orleans was tied for #28 in the league giving up 122.2 rushing yards per game
-Minnesota was #2 in the league giving up 87.1 rushing yards per game
-New Orleans was tied for #28 in the league, giving up 19 rushing touchdowns on the season
-Minnesota was tied for #1 in the league, giving up only 5 rushing touchdowns
-New Orleans was #18 in the league giving up 11 rushing plays for 20+ yards
-Minnesota was tied for #2 in the league giving up only 6 rushing plays for 20+ yards
-New Orleans was tied for #17 in the league giving up 3 rushing plays of 40+ yards
-Minnesota was tied for #5 in the league giving up only 1 rushing play of 40+ yards
-New Orleans was tied for #19 in the league giving up 48 passing plays of 20+ yards
-Minnesota was #25 in the league giving up 54 passing plays of 20+ yards
-New Orleans was tied for #24 in the league giving up 11 passing plays of 40+ yards
-Minnesota was tied for #16 in the league giving up 9 passing plays of 40+ yards
Those numbers sway more in the favor of Minnesota, probably stronger than any of the offensive numbers sway toward New Orleans. I’d say Minnesota is the stronger defensive team statistically.
The Key Stat for each team
In my opinion, though, there is one stat for each team that I haven’t mentioned yet that could be a deciding factor in the game if the other team can’t control it.
Minnesota’s kicking game is better
Ryan Longwell is a great guy to have on the team.
-Minnesota makes 93% of their field goals (#2 in the league)
-New Orleans makes 79% of theirs (#24 in the league)
-Minnesota makes 98% of their extra points (#17 in the league… 16 teams were perfect this year)
-New Orleans makes 95% of their extra points (#31 in the league)
95% seems awful good, but there was only 1 team in the league with a worse PAT percentage than New Orleans. If it turns into a tight game, this could potentially help Minnesota edge out a victory
New Orleans has an opportunistic defense
Even though statistically Minnesota has a better defense than New Orleans, the Saints defense seems to be able to make the big plays better.
-Minnesota’s defense scored 1 touchdown for the Vikings this year
-New Orleans defense scored 8 times
-Minnesota had 11 interceptions on the year
-New Orleans had 26 interceptions on the year
Minnesota is going to have to protect the ball. If Favre plays how he has been playing all year, this shouldn’t be an issue. The QB with the fewest interceptions in the league should be able to handle the defense with the second most interceptions. I expect Favre will play just fine. If I’m wrong, though, that could mean trouble for the Vikings
How about the home field advantage
This is where a lot of Vikings fans become nervous. Minnesota so far (including the playoffs) is 8-0 at home, but only 4-4 on the road.
I’ll be honest, that makes me nervous.
But let’s look at some key facts before we write the Vikings off
All four of the Vikings losses came on grass
The Vikings have losses to Pittsburgh, Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago… all have grass fields.
The Vikings are (including the playoffs) 11-0 on turf
They played 8 regular season home games, which are of course on turf, and they also played in Detroit and in St. Louis, both of which have turf fields.
The Vikings play worse in cold weather
3 of the four Vikings losses this year came in temperatures that were colder than the dome in Minnesota. It was 62 degrees in Pittsburgh during the game, 34 degrees in Carolina, and 12 degrees in Chicago. The only loss that was as warm as the dome came in Arizona. It actually was cold there that night, but they closed the roof on the stadium.
The Vikings are dominant on turf
This year the Vikings scored 32.8 points per game when playing on turf and only gave up 13.6 points per game in those games (including the playoffs)
The Saints aren’t perfect on turf
Don’t get me wrong: They’re VERY good on turf, but they average 32.1 points per game on turf (slightly less than the Vikings), they give up 21.1 points per game on turf (significantly more than the Vikings), and they have a record 9-2 on turf this year
What’s my analysis of these stats?
Well, I think it looks good for Minnesota. The Vikings have an offense that can keep pace with the Saints, a defense that is better than the Saints, a kicking game that is better than the Saints, and a quarterback who this year doesn’t throw interceptions, which is going to take away one of the strengths of the Saints.
Protect the Ball
This one is the most important. The Vikings cannot have turnovers, because the Saints will make them pay dearly. No interceptions by Favre, no fumbles by Peterson
Take advantage of New Orleans run defense
New Orleans was below average in stopping the run this year. To me, that means one of two things should happen: Peterson should be able to have his way with them, scoring multiple times, OR they will dedicate an extra person to slowing down Adrian Peterson which means Favre will pick them apart. If the Vikings play well, they should be able to use this to a big advantage.
Pressure Brees
Last week Romo didn’t have any time to get into a rhythm, and the Vikings rolled because of it. This week they’re facing a better quarterback, so they HAVE to do the same thing. They have to push Brees out of the pocket, make him rush some throws, and make sure they’re hitting him a lot. Because he’s Drew Brees and he’s amazing, he’s still going to complete some passes and probably rack up a lot of yards. The Vikings just have to be sure not to let him get in a rhythm at all during the game.
My Prediction
The Vikings win a tough one, 31-28.
By The Jazzy One on January 15th, 2010
The Minnesota Vikings will host this week’s playoff matchup against the Dallas Cowboys
The Vikings will be playing in their first playoff game this year after getting a bye for the first round. They’ll be hosting the Dallas Cowboys, who seemingly every sports analyst in the world seems to think is unstoppable after coming off their first playoff win in 13 years.
Are the Cowboys really that much better than the Vikings?
Wow, it seems like nearly every article I read, every sports talk radio show I listen to, and every segment I want on TV points to the Cowboys being too much to handle for the Vikings. So I started to try to analyze what everyone was saying.
“The Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFC”
That’s one of the things I’ve been hearing a lot lately… the Cowboys are hot, and the Vikings were slumping. The line I’ve been hearing over and over is “The Vikings lost 3 of their last 5 games!”
While that’s very true, the point that they’re leaving out is that the Cowboys lost two of their last five games. They lost in week 13 to the Giants, and in week 14 to the Chargers.
They say the Dallas offense has been playing well in those games, while the Minnesota offense has struggled.
In the final 5 games of the regular season, Dallas scored an average of 21.2 pionts per game. In the final 5 games of the season, the Vikings scored 25.6 points per game.
Minnesota somehow seemed to figure things out at halftime of the Bears game in week 16. In the final 6 quarters of the regular season, the Vikings have scored 74 points. In that same time frame, the Cowboys scored 24 points.
How is Dallas so much “hotter” than the Vikings right now?
The Vikings are losing to “bad” teams
I’ve also heard that Minnesota is at a disadvantage because they lost to weak teams like the Panthers and the Bears.
Okay, let’s look at that for a minute.
Minnesota lost to a weak divisional opponent when they lost to the Chicago Bears in week 16. The Bears weren’t good enough to make the playoffs.
Dallas, though, also lost to a weak divisional opponent when they lost to the New York Giants. The Giants weren’t good enough to make the playoffs. The difference is, the Cowboys lost to them TWICE.
Minnesota lost to a weak team in Carolina in Week 15. Carolina, though, was surging at the end of the year. Since replacing Jake Delhomme with Matt Moore the week before, they played decently against New England in a loss, and after the Minnesota game went on to crush the Giants, and beat the New Orleans Saints. As bad as people say the Panthers are, they finished with a record of 8-8.
The Cowboys played the Washington Redskins in week 11, and had to score a 4th quarter TD with less than 5 minutes to play in order to beat Washington 7-6. Washington went on to lose 5 of their next 6 games and finished with a record of 4-12.
3 of Minnesota’s regular season losses came against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. (Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago). That doesn’t look good on Minnesota’s record.
… But the same thing can be said about Dallas. They also lost 3 games this year against teams that didn’t make the playoffs (2 against the Giants and 1 against Denver).
Only 4 of Minnesota’s wins this year came against Playoff teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, and 2 against Green Bay)
… But only 3 of Dallas’ regular season wins came against Playoff teams (New Orleans, and 2 against Philly).
Let’s let statistics and facts talk for a few minutes
If you read this blog often, you’ll know that I’m a big fan of stats and figures and history, and all that jazz. So let’s take a look at the 2009 Dallas Cowboys and see how the Vikings compare to them.
-The Dallas Cowboys had a record of 11-5 this season
-The Vikings had a record of 12-4
-Dallas is 2nd in the league in total offense with 399.4 yards per game.
-Minnesota is less than 20 yards behind them at 379.6 yards per game (#5 in the league)
-Dallas is #14 in the league in points scored, averaging 22.6 points per game
-Minnesota is #2 in the league with 29.4 points per game
-Of the 4 teams left in the NFC, Dallas ranks last in points per game
-Minnesota ranks second.
-Of the 8 teams left in the NFL, Dallas ranks 7th in scoring
-Minnesota ranks second.
-Dallas finished 14th in the league at 3rd down conversion percentage with 41% (6th best of the 8 teams left)
-Minnesota finished #5 with 45% (2nd best of the 8 teams left)
-Dallas has a redzone scoring percentage of 51.8%. They finished #15 in the league
-Minnesota finished at #4 with 62.3%
-Both teams gave up 34 sacks this year
-However, 7 of the sacks given up by Minnesota came in the first 2 weeks of the season, when they were learning a new QB’s counts and dealing with 2 first time starters on their o-line. Dallas gave up 1 sack in those 2 games.
-The Cowboys defense was ranked #9 overall in yards per game giving up 315.9
-Minnesota was #6, giving up 305.5
-The Dallas defense only gives up 35% of 3rd down conversions to their opponents (#5 in the league)
-Minnesota gives up 34% (#3 in the league)
-Dallas sacked the opposing QB 42 times this year. That put them #7 in the league
-Minnesota was #1 with 48 sacks
-The Dallas defense was tied for #11 in the NFL in forced fumbles with 17.
-Minnesota was tied for #1, forcing 23 fumbles.
-The Dallas defense was tied for #16 in the league for recovering 10 fumbles by the opponents.
-The Vikings were tied for #5 recovering 13.
-Dallas’s opponents only score 57.6% of the times they get into the redzone.
-Minnesota’s opponents only score 45% of the time
-The Cowboys finished the sason +2 in the turnover ratio.
-Minnesota finished +6
-Tony Romo had a good year, throwing for 26 touchdowns (tied for 10th in the league)
-Brett Favre threw for 33 (2nd in the league, 1 TD behind the leader)
-Tony Romo had an excellent year, throwing only 9 interceptions. (1 in every 61 passes)
-Brett Favre only threw 7 (1 in every 75 passes)
-Tony Romo was #8 in the NFL with a passer rating of 97.6
-Brett Favre was #2 with a rating of 107.2
-Dallas has a feared pass rushing duo of Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware. They have 17 sacks total.
-Jared Allen and Ray Edwards have 23 sacks total.
-Dallas kicker Nick Folk makes 64% of his field goals (18 out of 28)
-Ryan Longwell makes 93% of his (26 out of 28)
*It’s been pointed out to me that Dallas got rid of Nick Folk
Their new kicker Shaun Suisham finished the season at 66.7%
-Dallas gives up 56.2 penalty yards per game
-Minnesota only gives up 47.3
Let’s get even a little more specific
Okay, so those are the general stats between the two teams, but we’re forgetting something pretty huge. In the playoffs, home field advantage can be a huge issue. Let’s take a look at a few of those same stats taking into account that the Vikings will be playing at home and the Cowboys will be playing on the road.
-Minnesota was 8-0 at home this year.
-Dallas was 5-3 on the road.
-Minnesota scores an average of 32.75 points per game in the dome
-Dallas scores an average of 20.25 points on the road
-Minnesota gives up an average of 15.5 points per game at home
-Dallas gives up an average of 25.5 points per game on the road
*EDIT: Dallas gives up an average of 17.4 points per game on the road. I somehow miscalculated this the
first time. I apologize for that.
-Minnesota’s offense scores in 64.5% of their redzone appearances at home.
-Dallas scores in 43.5% of theirs on the road
-Minnesota’s defense gets slightly worse at home, letting their opponents score from the redzone 50% of the time
-Dallas’s defense let’s their opponents score from the redzone 75% of the time (worst in the league)
Again… someone explain to me why everyone is picking Dallas to win this game?!?
-Block DeMarcus Ware
Even though the stats above say that Minnesota should have a clear advantage in this game, they showed in the Carolina game that a pass rusher can disrupt their offensive rhythm. Against Carolina, the Vikings seemed unwilling to adjust to Julius Peppers. Hopefully they won’t make that mistake against DeMarcus Ware.
-Play tough against the run
In each of their big wins against Philly, Dallas had over 170 net yards rushing. Minnesota needs to make sure to take Choice, Jones, and Barber out of the game as much as possible.
-Cover Jason Witten
The Vikings have a tendency to let receiving Tight Ends chew them up, and Witten certainly has that ability. They need to make sure they keep an eye on him and prevent him from making any big plays.
-Let Favre do his thing
I’m not saying go out and throw the ball 55 times, but sometimes Childress gets TOO stuck on the running game. He needs to make sure this is one of those games that Favre has some freedom to mix it up when necessary.
My Prediction
I’ll admit that I think this could potentially be a tough game, but I’m actually a lot less scared now that I’ve looked at these stats than I was when I was listening to ESPN radio earlier in the week. I think the Vikings can win. I’m going to say that they win 31-24.
By The Jazzy One on January 1st, 2010
The 11-4 Vikings return home to finish the season against the New York Giants.
After losing their last 3 road games, it might be a good thing that the Vikings (who are 7-0 at home) finish the season at Mall of America Field.
The Vikings have struggled lately
The Minnesota Vikings, who started off the season hot, have now lost 3 of their last 4 games. While I don’t buy too much into the theory of “momentum” for the playoffs, it is obvious that the Vikings have to fix some glaring problems before they play the games that really count.
In last week’s game against the Bears, they seemed to fix a few of their problems in the second half. The defense became a little more solid, only giving up scores when the Bears had a short field, and their offense completely got back on track, scoring 30 points in the second half alone… but as soon as those problems seemed to get fixed, they developed a new problem on Special Teams, which so far this year had been pretty good. They allowed two great run backs by the Bears, and they allowed an extra point to get blocked.
Those are the problems that the Vikings will be focusing on tightening up in the game against New York. Hopefully a one-game tune up will be all that Minnesota needs.
Minnesota still has something to play for.
The Vikings actually go into this game needing a win. They cannot settle for a loss. If the Vikings lose, they have no shot at getting the first round bye in the playoffs (which might be helpful in letting the guys heal some of the nagging injuries they have).
The Vikings have to come at the Giants full force, beat them, and then sit back and hope for an Eagles loss later that night.
The Giants have nothing to play for.
This could potentially be good for the Vikings. The Giants have no hope of going to the playoffs at this point. A win against the Vikings would only help their rivals the Eagles, and it would give them a later pick in this coming spring’s draft.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting that I think the Giants will tank on purpose. I do think, however, that a team that is only 2 years removed from the Super Bowl with nothing to play for this year could likely come in a little less motivated than many teams would.
-Tackle
Poor tackling has hurt them 3 out of the last 4 weeks. It CAN’T happen in the playoffs. The Vikings need to find the problem and fix it immediately.
-Protect Favre
Poor pass blocking killed the Vikings in the Carolina game in Week 15. It was poor at the beginning of the Bears game. Somehow they seemed to tighten up the screws a bit in the second half last week. They need to continue that trend. The Giants might be without Justin Tuck this week, but they have tons of depth on their defensive line, so the Vikings need to make sure they’re blocking well.
-Hold onto the ball
I’m looking at you, Mr. Peterson
My Prediction
I think the Vikings are a better team, and if they play like it, they’ll come out on top. I say 28-17 Vikings with a TD pass from Favre, AND from Jackson.
By The Jazzy One on December 26th, 2009
Another night game for the Vikings as they head to Chicago for Monday Night Football!
Are you ready for some football? Let’s hope the Vikings are. This week they’ll head to Chicago to face the 5-9 Bears.
Can the Vikings right the ship?
Let’s face it. The Minnesota Vikings are better than the Chicago Bears. No question. But, on the other hand, the Minnesota Vikings were better than the Carolina Panthers, and that didn’t seem to help them at all last week.
Minnesota basically needs to clean up the sloppiness. No penalties, no sacks on Favre, make holes for Peterson, and crisp tackling. These are all things that the Vikings are capable of. They just need to execute.
The Vikings are still playing for a bye.
This week is still very important to the Vikings. All it takes is a win by the Vikings OR a loss by the Cardinals to knock Arizona out of the race for the first round bye, but it will take a win by the Vikings AND a loss by the Eagles to give Minnesota a chance to breathe easy in next week’s game against the Giants.
-Protect Favre
Last week I lay the majority of the blame for the Vikings loss to Carolina on the fact that they let Julius Peppers do whatever he wanted. While it’s true that the Bears don’t have a pass rusher on the level of Peppers, you also have to bet it’s true that they watched the tape of that game. Expect the Bears to do whatever it takes to pressure Favre to make sure he can’t get in a rhythm. The Vikings have to expect that and figure out (sometime BEFORE Tuesday) what the best counter is.
-Pressure Cutler
The Vikings have been a sack machine this year, but they’ve been a little slower at pressuring the QB in the past few weeks. If they can step that up against Cutler, not only will it disrupt their offense, but his league-leading 25 interceptions tells me that the Vikings might be able to force him into some bad plays.
-Run more creatively
Adrian Peterson is NOT going to win the rushing title this year…. so let’s not worry about him getting his yards. Instead, the Vikings need to mix things up with him and Taylor… put them both in the game, motion one of them out, motion Harvin back… something to keep the other teams guessing. We’re two weeks away from the start of the playoffs… it’s time for the Vikings to start putting some things on film that will worry another coordinator or two (besides our own)
My Prediction
Well, I was dead wrong last week in my prediction, but the Vikings are too good of a team to be embarrassed twice. However, I think because it’ll be very cold, and because it’s late in the season, I think we’ll see Tarvaris sooner than we normally might. I’m gonna give this one to the Vikings at 24-10 with Tarvaris coming in after a 17-10 lead in the 3rd quarter.
By The Jazzy One on December 18th, 2009
This week the Vikings return to the road as they return to Sunday Night Football.
The Vikings will be traveling to Carolina this week to face the struggling Carolina Panthers.
Can they keep up the momentum?
Two weeks ago the Vikings fell apart against Arizona. They played their worst game of the season as a team. Last week they bounced back and played brilliantly against a very tough Cincinnati Bengals team. Can the Vikings keep up their momentum and roll through Carolina?
On paper this shouldn’t be much of a game. The Vikings are cruising through teams this year while the Panthers have struggled to a 5-8 season. The Panthers have recently benched QB Jake Delhomme in favor of young quarterback Matt Moore, and they have a league high 10 guys on the Injured Reserve list. They will be facing the NFL sack leaders in the Vikings, and they’ll be doing it without a couple of their starting offensive linemen.
Not only that, but the Panthers don’t have a lot to play for. At 5-8 they really don’t have a shot at the playoffs this year. The Vikings, on the other hand, are 1 win away from clinching their second straight NFC North crown, they’re still fighting for a first round bye, and with a little (unlikely) luck and some losses from New Orleans, there’s still an outside shot at home field advantage.
-Contain Julius Peppers
Julius Peppers is a beast. He might be the most dangerous pass rusher that the Vikings have faced so far. Chances are Bryant McKinnie won’t be able to contain Peppers himself, so the Vikings will probably throw a lot of tight ends and running backs at him, too.
If Peppers gets pressure on Favre, it could lead to sacks, or worse… bad throws. Favre is having a great year as far as interceptions goes, but while he still only has 6 on the season, 3 of those have come in the last 2 games. Don’t get me wrong… I’m not worried about Favre’s play, but I think teams have started to realize that they can’t watch for Peterson and only Peterson to beat them, and that they have to go after Favre as well.
-Continue to run the ball
Last week the offense was incredibly balanced… 36 run plays to 30 passing plays. With the way that the Vikings roster is built, that’s really the ticket to a good offense.
Having Percy Harvin back this week should make things a little easier, too. Hopefully the Vikings will get him mixed into the running game a bit, like they have in his last couple of games.
My Prediction
I predict the Vikings will win just about every week, but I expect this game to be along the lines of the Lions game or the Seahawks game. I give the win to Minnesota 35-17. I think Favre will have a good game with 2 TDs and no picks, and Jared Allen will get to the QB a couple of times.
By The Jazzy One on December 11th, 2009
The Minnesota Vikings are back home this week to face the Cincinnati Bengals.
Hopefully the Vikings will be able to right the ship as they go back home Sunday afternoon to face the surprisingly good Cincinnati Bengals.
Injuries, injuries, and more injuries
The Vikings haven’t battled too much with injuries this year so far, but it seems that when it rains, it pours.
-Will Winfield play? Who knows! I’m tired of guessing wrong! 
-EJ Henderson is out for the year
-Cedric Griffin has a sore neck after a hard hit last week
-Tyrell Johnson is likely out of the game with a concussion
-Bryant McKinnie has a sore ankle after hurting it last week
-Steve Hutchinson has been fighting shoulder and back pains all year
-Pat Williams is having issues with his foot
-Bernard Berrian is still having soreness in his hamstring
-Anthony Herrera is coming off a concussion
-Karl Paymah has knee problems
-Phil Loadholt still has a sore shoulder
-Percy Harvin is battling Migraines again
-Adrian Peterson is having some foot and ankle problems
-Brett Favre is now on the injury report listed as a “coach’s decision”
I expect all of them to play except for Tyrell Johnson, EJ Henderson (obviously), and maybe Antoine Winfield, who at this rate I’m barely expecting him to ever play again.
Are the Vikings done after last week’s poor performance?
I certainly am not worried. Teams lose games in the NFL. It’s the way it goes. There have only been two perfect regular seasons in the modern-era NFL for a reason. The fact that we have 2 NFL teams that are unbeaten this late in the year was literally unheard of before now. The Cardinals are a good team, and the Vikings played won of their worst games of the season. The combination of the two would be hard for any team to overcome.
I really expect the Vikings to turn things around this week, especially being at home. They need one win to clinch a playoff spot, and they still haven’t officially clinched the division, so they still have a lot to play for.
Will the Vikings be able to run this week?
This one is the big question mark to me. The Bengals have a good run defense, allowing less than 90 yards per game. The Vikings have great runners, but they’ve been struggling in recent weeks.
However, after last week’s performance, I expect Chilly to drop back to more conservative play calling this week. Expect a lot more pounding by the Vikings. Expect Adrian Peterson to carry more than 13 times.
-Play “un-sloppy” football
The Vikings need to make sure they’re making good decisions, and that everyone on the team is doing what they need to do. They need to make crisp blocks and strong tackles. These were things that were missing in last week’s game against the Cardinals.
-Pressure on Palmer
The Vikings lead the league in sacks, but they didn’t get a single sack on Kurt Warner last week. They need to find a way to be aggressive about getting to Palmer, and make sure he’s throwing under pressure during the game.
-Good play from the rookies
It’s very likely that Jarmarca Sanford will start at safety and that Jasper Brinkley will start at middle linebacker this week. The Vikings don’t need anything spectacular from them, but they do need them to play solid and relatively mistake free.
My Prediction
Even though a lot of radio guys seem to be going against the Vikings this week, I think they’re tough to beat at home.
Overall with Brad Childress as coach, the Vikings are 20-10 at home (and that includes a dismal 6-10 season and a very mediocre 8-8 season).
With Adrian Peterson on the team, the Vikings are 17-5 at home.
With Brett Favre on the team, the Vikings are 6-0 at home.
The Vikings have not scored fewer than 27 points at home this year.
I’m going to give this one to the Vikings, but I think it will be close. Vikings win 27-24.
By The Jazzy One on December 4th, 2009
The Minnesota Vikings will be heading to the desert to face the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals this Sunday Night!
It’s already week 13. Wow. The Vikings are 10-1, which I will have to truthfully say I didn’t expect at this point. The next couple games could be tough, though, as the Vikings play the Cardinals Sunday followed by the Bengals next week.
Shiancoe and Winfield out?
Last week it was Peterson and Winfield listed as questionable. This week Shiancoe takes AD’s place on the injury list. Shiancoe took a couple big hits in the endzone last week, which is what caused the issues, I would guess. Shiancoe has become a HUGE part of Minnesota’s offense, especially in the redzone, so hopefully he’ll be able to play Sunday.
As for Winfield, I don’t know what to guess. He made a statement saying that it would be a game-time decision whether or not he’s on the field Sunday. He’s been practicing this week. I’m hesitant to guess, though, because I really thought he’d be back for the Lions game, and that was 3 games ago!
Will Adrian Peterson spend time on the bench?
There are fans around the internet that think that Peterson should sit on the bench for a little while every time he fumbles the ball, but that’s not what I’m talking about.
I’m talking about the 109 MPH in a 55 MPH zone speeding ticket that he received.
I think he needs to sit at least a quarter, maybe a half. I hate to say it, because I want him to be able to challenge Chris Johnson for the rushing title, but I also know that the Vikings have prided themselves on proper conduct, and going 54 MPH over the speed limit is not proper. In fact, it’s stupid and irresponsible.
…and aside from him causing danger for other people, what about himself. What a waste it would be for such a talented person like Adrian Peterson to end his career (or worse) because he wrapped a BMW around a tree.
I was not amused.
Will Kurt Warner play for the Cardinals?
A couple weeks ago Warner went down with a concussion. Last week Matt Leinart started in his place. Reports say that Warner has been practicing this week, but he’s also been sharing snaps with Leinart. Coach Childress said that he thinks that Warner will play.
Stylistically, both of them are pocket passers, so I don’t think it matters to the Vikings defensive gameplan a whole lot. As a fan, I want a win… especially late in the year. It’d be nice to have an easier game by facing Leinart, but my guess is that Warner will end up on the field.
-Attack through the air
The Cardinals have struggled with pass defense. The Vikings have been improving their pass game. Both need to continue on Sunday. Just a note… last time Favre played the Cardinals, he put up 6 TD passes.
-Play smart pass defense
Last year I heard an unbelievable stat… Warner had a better rating and completion percentage on plays that he got blitzed than he did on plays with just the d-line rushing. I don’t know if that stat stands this year, but the fact is, Warner handles the blitz as well as anybody in the NFL. That means that our defensive backfield has to be strong in coverage, because unlike some of the QBs we’ve played recently, it’s hard to rattle Kurt Warner.
My Prediction
I think Warner will play, and I think it’ll be somewhat of a shootout, but I think the Vikings continue rolling. Vikings win 42-35
By The Jazzy One on November 27th, 2009
The Minnesota Vikings will host the Chicago Bears
Week 12 is here, and the Vikings will be playing the Bears for the first time this season. The rest of the NFC North is wrapped up for the Vikings, and the Bears are all that’s left.
The Vikings are 9-1 on the season and have a pretty commanding lead over the 4-6 Bears, but the win this week is still important for Minnesota, who is trying to put some distance between them and the 7-4 Packers.
Peterson and Winfield out?
Coming into this game, Adrian Peterson and Antoine Winfield are listed as questionable. Technically “questionable” means that there’s a 50% chance of them playing.
Winfield is still nursing a foot sprain suffered in Week 7. Some people thought that he’d be back last week against the Seahawks, but the team decided he needed a little more rest.
Peterson missed practice today because of an illness. Hopefully he’ll be better by Sunday. Personally I can’t imagine him missing this game if he has a choice. Adrian Peterson tends to run all over the Bears. In 4 career games against Chicago, Peterson averages 138.5 yards rushing.
How will Cutler handle the pressure?
If the Bears lose this game, they will slip to 4-7 with only 5 games left in the season. At that point it would be mathematically impossible for them to catch the Vikings for the division championship, and they’d likely have to win out the rest of the season to even make a run at a wildcard spot.
The team will be under pressure, but a lot of that pressure will lie on the shoulders of the Bears new quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler is talked about by many as being one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, but so far he has not shown that he can lead his team to victory. Cutler’s career record is 22-25 in games that he’s started.
Another one of Culter’s big problems in throwing interceptions. Last year Brett Favre (playing for the New York Jets) led the NFL in interceptions, and Jay Culter was #2. This year, Favre has reversed course, and actually leads the NFL (among starting quarterbacks) with FEWEST interceptions, while Cutler is still struggling, throwing more than anyone else in the league.
The Vikings will be looking to pressure Cutler and force him into some bad throws. If the Vikings can come out strong early and force Chicago to be in a position where they have to throw the ball, Minnesota should be playing right into Cutler’s weaknesses
-Pressure Cutler
Like I said above, the Vikings need to force Cutler into bad throws and bad decisions. The Vikings defensive line has been ferocious this year, and they need to keep up that pace. Sacks, hits, and hurries will lead to mistakes.
-Consistent play
Last week the Vikings showed that it is possible for them to play 4 solid quarters of football. If they do that this week, the Bears won’t fair any better than the Seahawks did.
-Solid special teams
I’ve been very impressed this year by the Vikings special teams unit. The Bears returners have hurt them in the past. The special teams needs to continue their solid play and not let the Bears get good starting field position.
My Prediction
The Vikings will be just fine. I think they’ll win 35-10.
By The Jazzy One on November 20th, 2009
The Minnesota Vikings will host the Seattle Seahawks
Can you believe it’s already Week 11?!? It doesn’t seem like it was that long ago since I was writing game recaps of the preseason games.
This week the Vikings will play the 2nd game of 3 in a row at home as they host the Seattle Seahawks.
Minnesota could potentially have their hands full with Seattle’s offense Sunday if they’re not careful. Seattle isn’t very good running the ball, ranked #27th in the league with 93 yards per game, but they are ranked #13 in passing offense with 244.2 yards per game (just 2.5 yards behind Minnesota).
The Vikings have a good defense this year, but it’s no secret that they are much stronger against the run than the pass. While Minnesota’s defense is 6th in the league in rushing yards per game, they’re a little bit farther down the list at #23 against the pass. Look for Seattle to attack the Vikings secondary more often than they test the waters against the run defense.
Strangely enough, Seattle’s defense nearly mirrors the Vikings. Seattle has the #10 rush defense in the league, giving up around 105 yards per game which is only 8.4 yards more than the Vikings give up. They’re ranked #22 in the league against the pass, giving up 1.1 yards per game less than the Vikings.
The main difference between these two teams is offensive production. The Vikings are one spot ahead of the Seahawks in passing yards per game, ranked at #12 in the league, but they’re 17 spots ahead of Seattle in rushing yards per game, ranked #10 in the league.
The Vikings are also much more efficient with their offense. The Vikings are ranked #5 in 3rd down percentage at 45%, and the Seahawks are at #20 with 38%. And even though the Vikings only average 31.5 more total yards per game than the Seahawks do, they average 10 more points per game. Those are the stats that really contribute to the difference in Minnesota’s 8-1 record and Seattle’s 3-6 record.
Will Winfield Play?
Whether or not Winfield will play seems to be up in the air at this point. He’s been testing his foot during practice, but it sounds as if it will still be a game time decision on Sunday.
It would be nice to have Winfield in the game, since the Seahawks have several potential receiving threats in Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, and TJ Houshmandzadeh.
Personally I expect him to play, but I do think that next week’s game against the Bears is far more important, and if he’s not 100% this week, I’d much rather him sit so he will be 100% next week.
The Viking Ship Keys To Victory:
-Get to Hasselbeck
Hasselbeck has thrown 6 interceptions this game and been sacked 15 times in 7 games started. If the Vikings defense, who leads the NFL with 33 sacks, can get to him, they can force him into making bad throws
-Tough 3rd down defense
The Seahawks are below average in 3rd down conversions in the NFL, so the Vikings will want to turn up the heat on 3rd down. If the Seahawks can’t stay on the field, they’re obviously going to have a hard time scoring
My Prediction
The Vikings will win this one 31-21, and Favre is going to have another big game. Over 300 yards for Brett, over 100 for All Day.
By The Jazzy One on November 13th, 2009
The Minnesota Vikings will host the Detroit Lions
The Bye Week is finally over, and we can now get back to preparing for more Minnesota Vikings games! This week the Vikings will host their division rivals, the Detroit Lions. It will be the Vikings chance to sweep a division series for the second time this year.
The Lions have a lot of things working against them this game.
- The Vikings have only lost 1 game this year
- The Lions have only won 1 game this year
- The Vikings have beat the Lions in 4 straight games
- The Vikings are 14-1 in their last 15 games with the Lions
- The Vikings have beaten the Lions 11 straight times at home
- Overall, the Vikings have only lost to the Vikings at home 12 times in 47 matchups, many of them coming in the Vikings early years in the league
- The Minnesota Vikings are +5 in turnovers.
- The Detroit Lions are -7 in turnovers
- The Vikings lead the NFL with 31 sacks
- Only 4 teams have given up more sacks than the Detroit Lions
- Only 1 team scores more points per game than the Minnesota Vikings this year
- Only 6 teams score less points per game than the Detroit Lions this year
- No team in the NFL has thrown fewer interceptions than the Minnesota Vikings this year
- Only 1 team has thrown more interceptions than the Lions this year
- The Minnesota Vikings are ranked 3rd in 3rd down percentage
- The Detroit Lions are ranked 17th in 3rd down percentage
- Only 1 team has fewer penalty yards than the Vikings this year
- Only 6 teams have more penalty yards than the Lions this year
- The Vikings leading rusher has 784 yards
- The Lions leading rusher has 460 yards
- The Vikings quarterback has 16 touchdowns and 3 interceptions
- The Lions quarterback has 5 touchdowns and 12 interceptions
- The Vikings leading receiver has 585 yards
- The Vikings second leading receiver has 389 yards
- The Lions leading receiver has 352 yards
- The Vikings leading scorer (not counting kicks) has 9 TDs
- The Lions leading scorer (not counting kicks) has 3 TDs
Things do not look good for the Detroit Lions. The Vikings are 16.5 point favorites over Detroit, which I will admit seems a bit much, but the fact remains, this should be Minnesota’s game. If they don’t completely blow it, they’ll win.
Antoine Winfield is sitting out
Winfield has been taking a limited part in practice this week, but he says that his foot still hurts when he cuts, so he’ll be sitting out this game. He hopes to be back for week 12 against the Seahawks.
I personally like this move. I think Paymah and Allen leave a lot to be desired when compared to Winfield, but I think they can hold their own against the Lions. If the defensive line puts pressure on Stafford, it shouldn’t matter much anyway.
The Viking Ship Keys To Victory:
-The Vikings Need To Pressure Stafford
Jared Allen is leading the league in sacks with 10.5. The Vikings are leading the league in sacks with 31. They need to keep up that momentum and make sure they’re putting Stafford under pressure. Stafford has thrown 12 picks this year, and he has given the league reminders that he’s still a rookie quarterback trying to learn the game. If the Vikings can keep him from getting into any kind of rhythm, they’ll be fine.
-The Vikings Need To Flex Their Offensive Muscles
In Week 2 the Vikings beat the Lions by 14 points despite the fact that Favre had under 200 yards throwing and Peterson had under 100 yards rushing. The Vikings offense is much more dynamic these days, but they have a tendency to score in spurts, but not stay consistent through the whole game. Even though they’re playing a weaker team, I’d like to see the Vikings move with consistency, and not stall at any point in the game.
-The Vikings Need To Not Blow It
Let’s face it: This is the Vikings game to win or lose. The Lions don’t control much of Sunday’s destiny. The Vikings are better than the Lions at every aspect of the game. If the Vikings don’t play dumb, they’ll be just fine
My Prediction?
Pain. (for the Lions fans, that is) The Vikes are gonna hurt ‘em, they’re gonna crucify ‘em… real bad.
Even though the point spread seems like a lot, I’m going to give it to the Vikings. I think they’ll win this one 42-14. I think Favre will have 3 TDs, Peterson will have 140 yards, and we’ll see T-Jack in the 4th quarter.
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