I’m not going to lie to you…

This is going to be a depressing blog post.

As of right now, the Minnesota Vikings are not mathematically eliminated from the playoff race, but their chances of going are extremely slim.    However, even though the hope of them participating in post season play is very slim, there technically is a possibility, so we will take a look here at what would have to happen.

Just to warn you, this post could get a little technical in spots as I talk about tiebreakers, and possible records, and such.  Nothing too complicated, but if you read it too fast it might get a little confusing.

The Vikings Would Have To Win Out

This probably goes without saying, but realistically the Vikings have to finish at 9-7 for any of these scenarios to  have any chance at happening.  The way the Vikings have been playing, winning out is a possibility, but it won’t be easy.  Here are the Vikings remaining games:

• Vs. New York Giants
• Vs. Chicago Bears
• At Philadelphia Eagles
• At Detroit Lions

The Vikings will have to be on the top of their game for each of these match ups.  The Giants are a tough team, even though they’ve struggled a little as of late.  The Bears and Eagles are each on top of their own divisions, and even though the Lions haven’t won many, they’ve surprised a lot of people with how close they’ve made a lot of games.

If the Vikings can’t win all four of these games, the stuff we’re going to talk about in the rest of this article is worthless, since there will be too many teams that it’s impossible to beat in the standings.

We Can Not Win Our Division

There is no possible way that the Vikings can catch the Chicago Bears in the NFC North.  The Bears already have 9 wins, so even if they lost their final four games and the Vikings won all four, they would end up with the same record: 9-7.  The first tiebreaker would be head-to-head record, which would be 1-1.  That means it would drop down to the next tiebreaker, which would be division record.  If the Bears lost their final four games, their division record would be 4-2.  The best record that the Vikings can hope for at this point in the division is 3-3.

To add to the dilemma, even if the Vikings could win the tiebreaker, and the Bears did lose out, Chicago’s final game of the season is Green Bay.  If Green Bay gets even one more win, they’ll be unreachable for the Vikings in the division standings as well.

So, Wildcard It Is…

That means the Vikings only shot is getting a wildcard spot.

Here’s what makes it tough, though.

There are three teams in the NFC that the Vikings cannot pass in the standings:

1. The Chicago Bears
2. The Atlanta Falcons
3. The New Orleans Saints

I already explained why the Vikings can’t pass the Chicago Bears.

The Falcons already have 10 wins, which is more than the Vikings could possibly have at this point in the season.

The Saints already have 9 wins, which is the most that the Vikings could have.  If the Vikings won out and the Saints lost out, they’d have the same record, but the Saints beat the Vikings in their head-to-head matchup, giving them the tiebreaker.

Luckily for the Vikings, the Falcons and the Saints are in the same division, and one of them will likely win the division overall.

So How Do The Vikings Get In

Well, like I said, it’s somewhat of a long shot.  Several things have to go right, because the Vikings will have to pass up the Seahawks or Rams (which ever one does NOT win the NFC West),  Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and the Giants

So let’s go through the steps the Vikings have to take to beat the odds and make the playoffs…

STEP 1: The Vikings Have To Win Out

We already mentioned this, so I won’t go into detail again, but the Vikings have to win their final four games.

STEP 2: The Packers Have To Lose Out

One more win by the Packers will guarantee them a better spot in the standings than the Vikings.  Since there are already two teams from the NFC South that the Vikings cannot pass in the standings(New Orleans and Atlanta) and already one in the NFC North (Chicago), being behind in the standings to Green Bay would mean there was no possible chance of a wildcard.

Unfortunately, this is probably the worst news that I have to share in this article, because it seems unlikely that a team of Green Bay’s caliber would finish the season with a four game losing streak.

The bright side (if there is one) would be the remaining schedule for the Packers:

• At Detroit
• At New England
• Vs The Giants
• Vs The Bears

Apart from the Lions game, these games all seem losable for Green Bay.  Not sure losses, by a longshot, but losable.

So this coming Sunday, we all have to be Detroit Lions fans.  If the Packers beat the Lions, it’s all over for the Vikings.

The potentially bad thing about this step is the Packers Week 17 game against the Bears.  If the Packers did somehow manage to lose against Detroit, New England, and the Giants, I’m not sure the Bears would have much to play for in that final game of the season.

STEP 3: Tampa Bay Has To Lose At Least Two Games

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently have two more wins than the Vikings.  If the Vikings went 4-0 in their last four games, and the Buccaneers went 2-2 in their last four games, the two teams would both finish at 9-7.  The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, but the Vikings didn’t play the Bucs this year.  The second tiebreaker is conference record.  If the Vikings win out, their conference record would be 8-4.  If the Bucs lose at least two games, their conference record would be 7-5 at best, giving the edge to Minnesota.

Tampa has these games remaining on their schedule:

• At Washington
• Vs Detroit
• Vs Seattle
• At New Orleans

We have to hope that they can lose two of them.  To be honest, this schedule looks a little softer than the remaining schedule for the Packers.  Maybe we’re going to end up rooting for Detroit two weeks in a row.

STEP 4: Either Seattle and St. Louis Have To Lose At Least Once

This one gets a little trickier to figure out.

Seattle and St. Louis are in the same division.  One of them will get and automatic bid into the playoffs because they won the NFC West.

We don’t care about the team that wins.

But, both of them are one game ahead of the Vikings in the standings, so the Vikings have to do better than whatever team doesn’t get the automatic bid.

Both teams sit at 6-6 right now.  One loss would guarantee that their best record could be 9-7, which is the same as the Vikings.  The Vikings didn’t play either of them head-to-head, which means the next tiebreaker would be win-loss record in the conference.

The Vikings would beat the Rams for sure at this point, since the best conference record that the Rams could have would be 7-5, and the Vikings would be sitting at 8-4.

Here’s where it gets tricky.

Technically, though, the Seahawks could end up with a 9-7 record as well as a 8-4 division record with only one loss in the final four games.

The number three tiebreaker for NFL wildcards is “Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four”.

If the Seahawks win 3 of their last 4 and the Vikings win out, their records against common opponents would be tied at 3-2.

That means it drops down the #4 on the tiebreaker list, which is “Strength of victory”.  Basically that means that the winning percentage of all the teams that the Vikings beat during the season would be calculated against the winning percentage of all the teams that the Seahawks beat.  We probably wouldn’t know the outcome of that until much closer to the final week of the season.

Of course, this would all become much easier if one of these two teams would lose at least twice.  They play each other in Week 17, which might be helpful if by some miracle the Vikings were still alive at this point.

Because of the tiebreaker possibilities, we’re probably better off rooting for Seattle to win the division, just in case.

Here are the remaining games on Seattle’s schedule:

• At San Francisco
• Vs Atlanta
• At Tampa Bay
• Vs St. Louis

Here are the remaining games on St Louis’ schedule:

• At New Orleans
• Vs Kansas City
• Vs San Francisco
• At Seattle

STEP FIVE: Either The Giants or the Eagles Have To Lose 3 of Their Last 4

This one doesn’t seem too easy, either.

Both Philadelphia and the New York Giants currently sit at 8-4.  Losing 3 of the next four would put either team at 9-7, and since the Vikings play both of them (and we’re assuming the Vikings are winning out), Minnesota would have the automatic tiebreaker over both teams.

Here’s where it gets tricky.

The Giants play the Packers in Week 16.  We need the Giants to win that game.  If that was the only game that the Giants won, the Vikings would be fine.

But, Philly and New York play each other in Week 15.  If New York was to win that game, it would mean that the Eagles would have to also lose one out of two games to the Cowboys.

Of course, that’s a possibility, but figuring out the different scenarios between the two teams makes my head hurt.

The ideal situation would be for Philly to be the one to lose at least 3 games.  At that point, we wouldn’t care how many games the Giants won.

But yes, it’s still a mathematical possibility for Philadelphia to win the division, the New York Giants to win against the Packers, and the Vikings to pass up the Giants.

Thinking about those scenarios makes my head hurt.

Here are the remaining games on the Giants schecule:

• At Minnesota
• Vs Philadelphia
• At Green Bay
• At Washington

Here are the remaining games on the Eagles schedule:

• At Dallas
• At New York Giants
• Vs Minnesota
• Vs Dallas

Got All That?

I will post a “who to root for” guide later on to help out.  I know it can be a little confusing.  Basically at this point, the Vikings chances of getting in are slim, but they are still there.

If the Vikings survive this weekend, I will continue to update you all on this for the rest of the season.

Good luck, Minnesota!

SKOL VIKINGS!

Related Posts:

• Season Predictions: How I think the Vikings will do in 2009
• The Minnesota Vikings 2010 Schedule
• 2011 Week 13 NFL Odds