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The Minnesota Vikings will travel to Louisiana to face the New Orleans Saints for the NFC Championship.
Both teams had a great regular season. Both teams had a first round bye. Both teams beat their Divisional Round opponent by 31 points. Now they’ll clash in the Super Dome with a trip to Superbowl 44 on the line.
Who has the advantage?
Both of these teams are great. Both have powerhouse offenses. The Saints are the best team that the Vikings will have played all year. Last week I pointed out that the stats showed that the Vikings were the better team, and as it turned out… they were.
So what do the stats show this week?
The Offenses are very close to even with a slight advantage to the Saints
I’m not sure that I’ve ever compared two top offenses that were so close before. Check this out…
-New Orleans averaged 403.8 yards per game (#1 in the league)
-The Vikings were only 24.2 yards per game behind them at 379.6 (#5 in the league)
-New Orleans scored 31.9 points per game (#1 in the league)
-Minnesota scored 29.4 points per game (#2 in the league)
-New Orleans converted on 45% of their 3rd down attempts this season. (#6 in the league)
-The Vikings also converted on 45% of their 3rd down attempts (#5 in the league, a few conversions ahead)
-New Orleans averaged 272.2 passing yards per game (#4 in the league)
-Minnesota was only 12.4 yards a game behind them at 259.8 (#8 in the league)
-New Orleans scored 34 passing touchdowns this year (all from Drew Brees) (tied for #1 in the league)
-Minnesota also had 34 passing touchdowns this year (33 from Favre, 1 from Jackson) (tied for #1 in the league)
-New Orleans completed 69.5% of their passes as a team (#1 in the league)
-Minnesota completed 68.3% of their passes as a team (#2 in the league)
-New Orleans had 131.6 rushing yards per game (#6 in the league)
-Minnesota was just 11.7 yards per game behind them with 119.9 (#13 in the league)
-New Orleans had 21 rushing TDs this season (tied for #3 in the leauge)
-Minnesota was only 2 behind with 19 (tied for #6 in the league)
I think it’s hard to argue that New Orleans has a more productive offense than the Vikings, but on the flip side I also think it’s hard to argue that offensively Minnesota can hold their own with the Saints. The Saints were better in most of these categories, but none there wasn’t much separation in any of them. That has to be encouraging to Minnesota fans.
How about Big Play Offense?
New Orleans is kind of known around the league as being a big play offense. How do the Vikings stack up to that?
-New Orleans had 14 running plays of 20 yards or more this season (tied for #8 in the league)
-Minnesota had 15 running plays of 20 or more yards (#7 in the league)
-New Orleans had 2 running plays for 40+ yards this year (tied for #14 in the league)
-Minnesota had 3 running plays of 40+ yards this year (tied for #7 in the league)
-New Orleans had 58 passing plays for 20+ yards this year (tied for #8 in the league)
-Minnesota had 55 passing plays for 20+ yards this year (tied for #10)
-New Orleans had 11 passing plays for 40+ yards this year (#10 in the league)
-Minnesota had 13 passing plays for 40+ yards this year (tied for #6 in the league)
-New Orleans had 5 kicks returned for 40+ yards this year (tied for #4 in the league)
-Minnesota also had 5 kicks returned for 40+ yards this year (tied for #4 in the league)
Believe it or not, I’d say that Minnesota holds a slight advantage when it comes to being the “big play offense”. Again, though, it’s a very close race, with Minnesota barely ahead in 3 of the categories, and New Orleans barely ahead in 1 category.
How about the Defense?
If the offenses are pretty equal, and the big play capability of each team is pretty close, it’s very possible that which ever team plays better defense will win the game. Let’s take a look at some of those stats.
-New Orleans ranked #24 in the league with 357.8 yards per game allowed.
-Minnesota ranked #6 in the league with 305.5 yards allowed per game.
-New Orleans ranked #20 in the league giving up 21.3 points per game
-Minnesota ranked #10 in the league giving up 19.5 points per game
-New Orleans’ defense was #14 in the league at stopping third downs, giving up only 38%
-Minnesota was #3 in the league, giving up only 34%
-New Orleans was #26 in the league, giving up 235.6 passing yards per game
-Minnesota was #19 in the league, giving up 218.4 passing yards per game
-New Orleans was #13 in the league with 35 sacks
-Minnesota was #1 in the league with 48 sacks
-New Orleans was tied for #28 in the league giving up 122.2 rushing yards per game
-Minnesota was #2 in the league giving up 87.1 rushing yards per game
-New Orleans was tied for #28 in the league, giving up 19 rushing touchdowns on the season
-Minnesota was tied for #1 in the league, giving up only 5 rushing touchdowns
-New Orleans was #18 in the league giving up 11 rushing plays for 20+ yards
-Minnesota was tied for #2 in the league giving up only 6 rushing plays for 20+ yards
-New Orleans was tied for #17 in the league giving up 3 rushing plays of 40+ yards
-Minnesota was tied for #5 in the league giving up only 1 rushing play of 40+ yards
-New Orleans was tied for #19 in the league giving up 48 passing plays of 20+ yards
-Minnesota was #25 in the league giving up 54 passing plays of 20+ yards
-New Orleans was tied for #24 in the league giving up 11 passing plays of 40+ yards
-Minnesota was tied for #16 in the league giving up 9 passing plays of 40+ yards
Those numbers sway more in the favor of Minnesota, probably stronger than any of the offensive numbers sway toward New Orleans. I’d say Minnesota is the stronger defensive team statistically.
The Key Stat for each team
In my opinion, though, there is one stat for each team that I haven’t mentioned yet that could be a deciding factor in the game if the other team can’t control it.
Minnesota’s kicking game is better
Ryan Longwell is a great guy to have on the team.
-Minnesota makes 93% of their field goals (#2 in the league)
-New Orleans makes 79% of theirs (#24 in the league)
-Minnesota makes 98% of their extra points (#17 in the league… 16 teams were perfect this year)
-New Orleans makes 95% of their extra points (#31 in the league)
95% seems awful good, but there was only 1 team in the league with a worse PAT percentage than New Orleans. If it turns into a tight game, this could potentially help Minnesota edge out a victory
New Orleans has an opportunistic defense
Even though statistically Minnesota has a better defense than New Orleans, the Saints defense seems to be able to make the big plays better.
-Minnesota’s defense scored 1 touchdown for the Vikings this year
-New Orleans defense scored 8 times
-Minnesota had 11 interceptions on the year
-New Orleans had 26 interceptions on the year
Minnesota is going to have to protect the ball. If Favre plays how he has been playing all year, this shouldn’t be an issue. The QB with the fewest interceptions in the league should be able to handle the defense with the second most interceptions. I expect Favre will play just fine. If I’m wrong, though, that could mean trouble for the Vikings
How about the home field advantage
This is where a lot of Vikings fans become nervous. Minnesota so far (including the playoffs) is 8-0 at home, but only 4-4 on the road.
I’ll be honest, that makes me nervous.
But let’s look at some key facts before we write the Vikings off
All four of the Vikings losses came on grass
The Vikings have losses to Pittsburgh, Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago… all have grass fields.
The Vikings are (including the playoffs) 11-0 on turf
They played 8 regular season home games, which are of course on turf, and they also played in Detroit and in St. Louis, both of which have turf fields.
The Vikings play worse in cold weather
3 of the four Vikings losses this year came in temperatures that were colder than the dome in Minnesota. It was 62 degrees in Pittsburgh during the game, 34 degrees in Carolina, and 12 degrees in Chicago. The only loss that was as warm as the dome came in Arizona. It actually was cold there that night, but they closed the roof on the stadium.
The Vikings are dominant on turf
This year the Vikings scored 32.8 points per game when playing on turf and only gave up 13.6 points per game in those games (including the playoffs)
The Saints aren’t perfect on turf
Don’t get me wrong: They’re VERY good on turf, but they average 32.1 points per game on turf (slightly less than the Vikings), they give up 21.1 points per game on turf (significantly more than the Vikings), and they have a record 9-2 on turf this year
What’s my analysis of these stats?
Well, I think it looks good for Minnesota. The Vikings have an offense that can keep pace with the Saints, a defense that is better than the Saints, a kicking game that is better than the Saints, and a quarterback who this year doesn’t throw interceptions, which is going to take away one of the strengths of the Saints.
Protect the Ball
This one is the most important. The Vikings cannot have turnovers, because the Saints will make them pay dearly. No interceptions by Favre, no fumbles by Peterson
Take advantage of New Orleans run defense
New Orleans was below average in stopping the run this year. To me, that means one of two things should happen: Peterson should be able to have his way with them, scoring multiple times, OR they will dedicate an extra person to slowing down Adrian Peterson which means Favre will pick them apart. If the Vikings play well, they should be able to use this to a big advantage.
Pressure Brees
Last week Romo didn’t have any time to get into a rhythm, and the Vikings rolled because of it. This week they’re facing a better quarterback, so they HAVE to do the same thing. They have to push Brees out of the pocket, make him rush some throws, and make sure they’re hitting him a lot. Because he’s Drew Brees and he’s amazing, he’s still going to complete some passes and probably rack up a lot of yards. The Vikings just have to be sure not to let him get in a rhythm at all during the game.
My Prediction
The Vikings win a tough one, 31-28.
Related posts:
- NFC Championship: Vikings beat the Vikings, Saints going to Miami
- IT’S PLAYOFF GAME TIME – Minnesota Vikings Game Preview – The Vikings vs The Cowboys
- IT’S GAME TIME – Week 11 Preview: The Minnesota Vikings vs The Seattle Seahawks
- IT’S GAME TIME – Week 10 Preview: The Minnesota Vikings vs The Detroit Lions
- IT’S GAME TIME – Week 7 Preview Vikings vs Steelers
Great analysis. Although it should have been a blowout by the Vikes. Can’t turn the ball over 5 times…..duh. Very dissappointing end to a fantastic year. This is a very good team right now. I hope I don’t have to wait another 10+ years to get this close again.
This one hurts.
Dave