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The Minnesota Vikings will host this week’s playoff matchup against the Dallas Cowboys
The Vikings will be playing in their first playoff game this year after getting a bye for the first round. They’ll be hosting the Dallas Cowboys, who seemingly every sports analyst in the world seems to think is unstoppable after coming off their first playoff win in 13 years.
Are the Cowboys really that much better than the Vikings?
Wow, it seems like nearly every article I read, every sports talk radio show I listen to, and every segment I want on TV points to the Cowboys being too much to handle for the Vikings. So I started to try to analyze what everyone was saying.
“The Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFC”
That’s one of the things I’ve been hearing a lot lately… the Cowboys are hot, and the Vikings were slumping. The line I’ve been hearing over and over is “The Vikings lost 3 of their last 5 games!”
While that’s very true, the point that they’re leaving out is that the Cowboys lost two of their last five games. They lost in week 13 to the Giants, and in week 14 to the Chargers.
They say the Dallas offense has been playing well in those games, while the Minnesota offense has struggled.
In the final 5 games of the regular season, Dallas scored an average of 21.2 pionts per game. In the final 5 games of the season, the Vikings scored 25.6 points per game.
Minnesota somehow seemed to figure things out at halftime of the Bears game in week 16. In the final 6 quarters of the regular season, the Vikings have scored 74 points. In that same time frame, the Cowboys scored 24 points.
How is Dallas so much “hotter” than the Vikings right now?
The Vikings are losing to “bad” teams
I’ve also heard that Minnesota is at a disadvantage because they lost to weak teams like the Panthers and the Bears.
Okay, let’s look at that for a minute.
Minnesota lost to a weak divisional opponent when they lost to the Chicago Bears in week 16. The Bears weren’t good enough to make the playoffs.
Dallas, though, also lost to a weak divisional opponent when they lost to the New York Giants. The Giants weren’t good enough to make the playoffs. The difference is, the Cowboys lost to them TWICE.
Minnesota lost to a weak team in Carolina in Week 15. Carolina, though, was surging at the end of the year. Since replacing Jake Delhomme with Matt Moore the week before, they played decently against New England in a loss, and after the Minnesota game went on to crush the Giants, and beat the New Orleans Saints. As bad as people say the Panthers are, they finished with a record of 8-8.
The Cowboys played the Washington Redskins in week 11, and had to score a 4th quarter TD with less than 5 minutes to play in order to beat Washington 7-6. Washington went on to lose 5 of their next 6 games and finished with a record of 4-12.
3 of Minnesota’s regular season losses came against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. (Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago). That doesn’t look good on Minnesota’s record.
… But the same thing can be said about Dallas. They also lost 3 games this year against teams that didn’t make the playoffs (2 against the Giants and 1 against Denver).
Only 4 of Minnesota’s wins this year came against Playoff teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, and 2 against Green Bay)
… But only 3 of Dallas’ regular season wins came against Playoff teams (New Orleans, and 2 against Philly).
Let’s let statistics and facts talk for a few minutes
If you read this blog often, you’ll know that I’m a big fan of stats and figures and history, and all that jazz. So let’s take a look at the 2009 Dallas Cowboys and see how the Vikings compare to them.
-The Dallas Cowboys had a record of 11-5 this season
-The Vikings had a record of 12-4
-Dallas is 2nd in the league in total offense with 399.4 yards per game.
-Minnesota is less than 20 yards behind them at 379.6 yards per game (#5 in the league)
-Dallas is #14 in the league in points scored, averaging 22.6 points per game
-Minnesota is #2 in the league with 29.4 points per game
-Of the 4 teams left in the NFC, Dallas ranks last in points per game
-Minnesota ranks second.
-Of the 8 teams left in the NFL, Dallas ranks 7th in scoring
-Minnesota ranks second.
-Dallas finished 14th in the league at 3rd down conversion percentage with 41% (6th best of the 8 teams left)
-Minnesota finished #5 with 45% (2nd best of the 8 teams left)
-Dallas has a redzone scoring percentage of 51.8%. They finished #15 in the league
-Minnesota finished at #4 with 62.3%
-Both teams gave up 34 sacks this year
-However, 7 of the sacks given up by Minnesota came in the first 2 weeks of the season, when they were learning a new QB’s counts and dealing with 2 first time starters on their o-line. Dallas gave up 1 sack in those 2 games.
-The Cowboys defense was ranked #9 overall in yards per game giving up 315.9
-Minnesota was #6, giving up 305.5
-The Dallas defense only gives up 35% of 3rd down conversions to their opponents (#5 in the league)
-Minnesota gives up 34% (#3 in the league)
-Dallas sacked the opposing QB 42 times this year. That put them #7 in the league
-Minnesota was #1 with 48 sacks
-The Dallas defense was tied for #11 in the NFL in forced fumbles with 17.
-Minnesota was tied for #1, forcing 23 fumbles.
-The Dallas defense was tied for #16 in the league for recovering 10 fumbles by the opponents.
-The Vikings were tied for #5 recovering 13.
-Dallas’s opponents only score 57.6% of the times they get into the redzone.
-Minnesota’s opponents only score 45% of the time
-The Cowboys finished the sason +2 in the turnover ratio.
-Minnesota finished +6
-Tony Romo had a good year, throwing for 26 touchdowns (tied for 10th in the league)
-Brett Favre threw for 33 (2nd in the league, 1 TD behind the leader)
-Tony Romo had an excellent year, throwing only 9 interceptions. (1 in every 61 passes)
-Brett Favre only threw 7 (1 in every 75 passes)
-Tony Romo was #8 in the NFL with a passer rating of 97.6
-Brett Favre was #2 with a rating of 107.2
-Dallas has a feared pass rushing duo of Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware. They have 17 sacks total.
-Jared Allen and Ray Edwards have 23 sacks total.
-Dallas kicker Nick Folk makes 64% of his field goals (18 out of 28)
-Ryan Longwell makes 93% of his (26 out of 28)
*It’s been pointed out to me that Dallas got rid of Nick Folk
Their new kicker Shaun Suisham finished the season at 66.7%
-Dallas gives up 56.2 penalty yards per game
-Minnesota only gives up 47.3
Let’s get even a little more specific
Okay, so those are the general stats between the two teams, but we’re forgetting something pretty huge. In the playoffs, home field advantage can be a huge issue. Let’s take a look at a few of those same stats taking into account that the Vikings will be playing at home and the Cowboys will be playing on the road.
-Minnesota was 8-0 at home this year.
-Dallas was 5-3 on the road.
-Minnesota scores an average of 32.75 points per game in the dome
-Dallas scores an average of 20.25 points on the road
-Minnesota gives up an average of 15.5 points per game at home
-Dallas gives up an average of 25.5 points per game on the road
*EDIT: Dallas gives up an average of 17.4 points per game on the road. I somehow miscalculated this the
first time. I apologize for that.
-Minnesota’s offense scores in 64.5% of their redzone appearances at home.
-Dallas scores in 43.5% of theirs on the road
-Minnesota’s defense gets slightly worse at home, letting their opponents score from the redzone 50% of the time
-Dallas’s defense let’s their opponents score from the redzone 75% of the time (worst in the league)
Again… someone explain to me why everyone is picking Dallas to win this game?!?
-Block DeMarcus Ware
Even though the stats above say that Minnesota should have a clear advantage in this game, they showed in the Carolina game that a pass rusher can disrupt their offensive rhythm. Against Carolina, the Vikings seemed unwilling to adjust to Julius Peppers. Hopefully they won’t make that mistake against DeMarcus Ware.
-Play tough against the run
In each of their big wins against Philly, Dallas had over 170 net yards rushing. Minnesota needs to make sure to take Choice, Jones, and Barber out of the game as much as possible.
-Cover Jason Witten
The Vikings have a tendency to let receiving Tight Ends chew them up, and Witten certainly has that ability. They need to make sure they keep an eye on him and prevent him from making any big plays.
-Let Favre do his thing
I’m not saying go out and throw the ball 55 times, but sometimes Childress gets TOO stuck on the running game. He needs to make sure this is one of those games that Favre has some freedom to mix it up when necessary.
My Prediction
I’ll admit that I think this could potentially be a tough game, but I’m actually a lot less scared now that I’ve looked at these stats than I was when I was listening to ESPN radio earlier in the week. I think the Vikings can win. I’m going to say that they win 31-24.
Related posts:
- ITS GAME TIME – Week 5 Preview Vikings at Rams
- IT’S GAME TIME – Week 10 Preview: The Minnesota Vikings vs The Detroit Lions
- IT’S NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TIME! – Minnesota Vikings Game Preview – Vikings Vs Saints -
- IT’S GAME TIME – Week 11 Preview: The Minnesota Vikings vs The Seattle Seahawks
- NFC Divisonal Round Recap: The Vikings are for real, the Cowboys didn’t live up to their hype
There is no doubt that the Vikings were the better team over the first 11-12 weeks, but it’s how the Vikings and Cowboys closed the season that have analysts siding with the ‘Boys. I’m sure if you looked at stats over the last 5 games, as opposed to the entire season, things would look much gloomier for our side. Nonetheless, the playoffs are an entirely different beast altogether. Anything could happen, and for the sake of my sanity, the Vikings better walk away with a win. SKOL VIKES!!!
Actually I did look at those games a little bit. The Vikings lost 3 of the last 5, the Cowboys lost 2. The Cowboys scored 21 points a game in those last 5, the Vikings scored 25.
This is my first time on this site and marked it as one of my favorites.Very nice job looking up all of those stats.
While I’m not into stats too much,I think the Vikings being 14-2 at home the last 2 years will give the Vikings a huge advantage and of course the win.
I’m looking forward to going deaf in the dome on Sunday
Yeah, but I mean under all the categories. But it was a good post though, gave me some more confidence in our team. I didn’t mean to nitpick or anything, just wanted to keep things in perspective.
JAZZ, DALLAS WILL NOT WIN as you have pointed out all the reasons why, plus we are at home, good research-well done, GO VIKESSSSSSSSS.
I guess the odds makers pay attention to stats. That is why the Vikings are favored by 2 1/2.
Actually Larry, the home team usually gets 3 points just for being at home, so the fact that it’s 2 1/2 means they really kinda think the Cowboys have a slight edge
what ever! GO BOYS!
I had the unfortunate opportunity to watch the “Hail Mary Pass” game. I came as close as I ever have come to chucking a TV out the front door. I know it’s an intangtible, but, The Vikes have one coming.
p.s. I’ve been a Vikings fan since their inception. I have one coming.
Here are some more stats for you. Dallas played a tougher schedule and finished with only one less loss in a tougher division (total opponents win/loss record). Of Jared Allen’s 14.5 sacks, over half came in 2 games against Green Bay. Jay Ratliff is an All Pro DT who led his position in sacks, so you have more to worry about than Ware and Spencer on the edges. Andre Gurode is a 2nd team All-Pro center who along with KKOsier and LDavis are big and strong enough to move the Williames. Dallas has played the top 4 offenses in the NFL (The Viking’s haven’t played one) and held each below their season average in yards and points. You are giving your team big credit for beating a NYG team that had nothing to play for and no pride in the last game.
Kevin Williams had the same number of sacks as Ratliff
God does not care about our mathematical difficulties. He integrates empirically.