Coach Childress has a formula, Brett Favre fits in
I read an interesting article the other day on the Vikings on ESPN.com. It talked about how Coach Childress has a ratio of completed passes to runs that he sees as being a magic number in the NFL.
He mentioned a simple theory that seems to work that I had never heard before. The formula seems almost too basic, but upon further review, it’s telling. If a team’s combined number of rushes and pass completions is around 50, it will win most games.
That’s an interesting idea. The writer of the article looked into it a little bit.
Suddenly, it hit me why it’s obvious Favre is the answer for Minnesota, and not Jackson or Rosenfels. The Vikings, thanks to Peterson and Chester Taylor, averaged 32.438 runs a game last season. Gus Frerotte and Jackson averaged 16.69 completions, giving the Vikings the 49.13 combination that made them a winning team. Though the Eagles team that beat them in the first round of the playoffs had a 49.31 combination, Donovan McNabb averaged 22.63 completions a game. That’s six completions a game better than the Vikings and a key reason why McNabb beat Minnesota in the playoffs last season, according to Childress.
Hmmm, that’s kinda interesting.
Going through numbers over the past five seasons, the 26 playoff teams that topped 50 averaged a 12-4 record. The 2005 Redskins were the only playoff team that topped 50, but didn’t win at least 10 games.
I decided to check a few that weren’t listed. I checked last year’s Lions, who went 0-16. Their “index” was 39.56
So I decided to check the 2007 Dolphins, who went 1-15. Their index was 44.13
The 2007 Vikings who went 8-8 had an index of 46.44, which was around 2 1/2 points lower than their 10-6 team.
The 2007 Patriots, who went 16-0 had an index of 53.88.
Of course, according to Childress, that just means you’ll win most of your games… meaning you’ll have a good record. I think most people expect Minnesota to have a good record this year, but perhaps Childress is onto something with this ratio thing.
Click HERE to read the rest of the article
Related posts:
